Retail shopping venues follow rooftops and, when examining the metrics that influence the real estate decisions made by restaurants and retailers, Bram Quarter seems to have it all.
Nearly 150,000 people reside within a five-mile radius of the center, including approximately 50,000 households with an average household income exceeding $200,000. By any measure, that is a lot.
Bram Quarter tenants have direct access to a dedicated and in-place audience with ready disposable income in Birchwood at Brambleton, with the promise of 1,400 residential units. More than 30,000 vehicles pass the site each day, and the architecturally-pleasing asset features excellent roadside visibility and plenty of free parking.
So why, as Bram Quarter barrels towards its two-year completion date (delivered in December 2022), is the nearly 55,000 square foot, two-story project barely leased? The center is considered to have 17 peer properties in the immediate area and the average vacancy is just over 25 percent. Nails at Tiffany’s is set to join Paris Baguette as the only ground floor retailers and the rumors of others joining the mix have proved to be nothing more than that. Bobbio Family Denistry will soon have a new neighbor on the upper floor in engineering firm Ashe Consultants. That still leaves lots of see-through office and retail space.
For insights and possible answers, we turn to a retail leaing professional active in the Ashburn/Brambleton submarket.
According to Billy Kelly, Principal with KLNB, Bram Quarter is considered “strictly a neighborhood asset that has a had a slower roll during lease up which generally has less appeal among restaurants and retailers than centers that are a bit more regional and pull from a wider trade area.” He points to Brambleton Town Center as the magnet that is drawing most of the attention in the local market in the current environment, given its size and presence of a major grocery tenant in Harris Teeter. Kelly compares Bram Quarter to Brambleton Corner Plaza, the small center near Hanson Regional Park which is also struggling to attract tenants.
“Bram Quarter and Brambleton Town Center were both constructed on a speculative basis, which is a bit atypical, as most developers feel more secure having a few retailers in tow first,” Kelly said. “The Brambleton market is still maturing and will start inching up the wish list among restaurants and retailers as new homes are delivered, but that will take time. In addition, the pandemic skyrocked construction prices which, in turn, impacted rental rates. The newer centers generally have asking rents that are considerably steeper than those assets delivered previously, which makes a tremendous difference.”
Kelly is optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bram Quarter and Brambleton Corner Plaza. “When the extension of North Star Boulevard opens, traffic flow will improve and more cars will be driving by both centers,” he said. “Fast casual and quick service restaurants remain in growth mode and are actively seeking new locations. The various hot chicken concepts quickly coming to mind.
“The strong opening of Paris Baguette helps the cause,” he added. “Retailers and restaurants will surely take notice of their performance and consider Bram Quarter with more intent. No concept wants to be the first tenant in a center, but the bakery and café has now broken the ice and will help stir interest. Brighter days are ahead.”
