A major pivot in the U.S. housing market was announced at MarketNsight’s latest MarketWatch event. Pending home sales are up considerably since the presidential election. In Atlanta, pending sales are up 23%, and hotspots like Denver, Las Vegas and Nashville report gains of 17% in November.
Life After Fed Rate Cuts: A Mixed Bag for the Housing Market
The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts have spurred some activity, but the impact varies across markets. While demand has risen, the longstanding shortage of housing supply continues to push prices higher. MarketNsight forecasts a 15% uptick in permits in 2025, alongside a 5% price increase driven by constrained inventory and steady demand.
A Tale of Two Markets: Resale vs. New Homes
In 2023, new homes dominated as resale inventory dried up due to the lock-in effect – homeowners staying put with low-rate mortgages. Now, resale is making a comeback, driving a more competitive landscape.
Resale home activity has turned positive for the first time in two years. This shift signals a new era of competition for new home builders as resale inventory reenters the marketplace.
“Resale listings are a game-changer. For two years, new homes thrived in a vacuum with minimal competition from resale,” said John Hunt, Principal and Chief Analyst of MarketNsight. “Now, home builders must be strategic, especially in pricing, to compete effectively. If your homes aren’t selling, it’s time to revisit the 80/20 rule.”
“Builders must price competitively,” Hunt emphasized. “Historically, deals under perform because they are priced too high over comparable resale inventory.”
The Way Forward: Attainable Housing as the Key Issue
MarketNsight underscores the critical need for attainable housing. First-time buyers and downsizing retirees face limited options as zoning policies constrain the construction of mid-sized homes. Innovative solutions—such as smaller floor plans and strategic land use—are essential to meet demand in the $300,000 to $500,000 price range.
Atlanta Forecast: A Bright Spot in a Challenging Market
The Atlanta market is positioned for growth, with permits projected to rise 15% in 2025 and home prices projected to increase by 5%. Average home values have surged 62% since 2019, giving homeowners a tremendous amount of equity to put towards a new home if they can find inventory that fits their price range and lower square footage requirements.
About MarketNsight
MarketNsight provides data-driven insights and forecasts for the housing industry, helping builders, developers, and financial institutions make informed decisions in a dynamic market. With a commitment to uncovering actionable trends, MarketNsight empowers its clients to navigate the complexities of today’s housing landscape.
MarketNsight currently serves more than 45 cities in nine states – Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Look for the addition of more cities soon!
To schedule a demonstration of the MarketNsight Feasibility Matrix® or Mortgage Matrix®, call 770-419-9891 or email info@MarketNsight.com. For information about MarketNsight and John Hunt’s upcoming speaking engagements, visit www.MarketNsight.com.
